Monday, 4 January 2016

How the S&P 500 EWxperts Got it Wrong in 2015

Proving that forecasting isn't all plain sailing, analysts from the world's biggest banks had mixed success with their predictions for the S&P 500 last year.

The S&P 500, which tracks the biggest US-listed companies closed down almost 1 percent on Thursday at 2,043 points. It ended the year down 0.73 percent after three straight years of double digit gains.

It marks a significant change from the 11.5 percent gain posted in 2014 and is also some way off forecasts collated by CNBC in December 2014. A mean average of the ten analysts' calls suggested the benchmark would finish 2015 at 2,185 points, with a gain of just over 6 percent.

Many, if not all, banks updated or changed their outlooks as the year progressed – and some still got it wrong.

Societe Generale's 2015 outlook was among the most bearish – and also the most accurate. In November 2014, the French bank predicted that global equity markets, including the US, would suffer a "hiccup" ahead of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.

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